I will make no bones about it, Saturday October 14th 2023 was one of Irish rugby’s biggest gut punches. This Ireland team were, and are, a better team than the All Blacks squad that knocked them out. Unfortunately sport is not played on paper, although thankfully, it also has no memory.
Despite our concerns, Andy Farrell’s men have bounced back with a vengeance, and have one hand on consecutive Six Nations Championship titles with a fortnight to go. Barring complacency, they are also poised for back-to-back Slams. This is largely in part due to an unwillingness to rest on their laurels and hope their 2023 form would just carry over. They have evolved and rebooted; just like the best sides tend to do.
Over the course of this article I am going to try and illustrate how Ireland are shaping up in the first three games of 2024 with the help of both stats and analysis!
**Note: All stats are for games Round 1-3 of 2023 & 2024 Six Nations, against France, Italy and Wales**
Set Piece
As the French so beautifully put it: “no scrum, no win”. If you take a glance at European Cup, Rugby Championship, Six Nations and World Cup winning sides over the years; the vast majority are built on the sturdy foundations of a killer set-piece. Sometimes it’s a dominant scrum, and other times it’s a free-scoring maul. Regardless, it’s as common of a cornerstone as defensive juggernauts. Thankfully, across February, Ireland has picked up where they left off… in 2022.
Starting with the scrum, and the enigma set-piece function has technically regressed, but felt like it progressed. After a mixed World Cup teetering on the edge before being pinged in the quarter final, and again against France means a “perfect day” statistically against Italy and Wales was a breath of fresh air. Yet, Ireland are still pushing the boundaries and could yet be pinged more. Whereas Wayne Barnes and Karl Dickson looked cynically, Andrea Piardi gave Porter-Sheehan-Furlong the benefit of the doubt as they devoured the Welsh front row.
If you look at the images above, you could come to differing conclusions. From a certain vantage point you could argue Ireland were burrowing in, from another it was just a demolition. Painting pictures are important even if they are abstract. Credit should go to Tadhg Furlong for staying as square as humanly possible on both occasions, potentially saving face for the officials. Here’s hoping Nika Amushekeli gives us the benefit of the doubt in Twickenham, because as a known stickler for the scrum, he could swing like a pendulum if he sees fit.
There has been a greater improvement at lineout time than the corresponding fixtures last year. Despite a dip in form against Wales, Paul O’Connell and the players have found a new wave of consistency. A man who deserves most of the praise is Dan Sheehan. Although the World Cup hiccups were mainly shared, Sheehan’s throwing has been a sight to behold. Although Ireland have been safer with some of their throws, largely in part to a more durable and explosive out-half, the throws have been on the money.
Take the two above images for example. Tadhg Beirne’s take deep in the Irish 22 is helped by a floating bullet over Ollivon and into the grasp of the lock at his high point. This accuracy was maintained across the opening two games, with Ireland successful with 100% of throws. However, a throw is only as good as the moving parts as shown in the other image. Joe McCarthy, who nails his back lift against France, botches the front lift of O’Mahony, leaving him off balance and unable to bring down the ball. Although he may have struggled to retain possession if he’s upright; it’s still a clearer work-on for the young power lock. More of the former than the latter against England and we can generate the organised chaos to knock them off course.
Attack
So much gets said about Ireland’s high-speed attack, but it is earned praise. Directed by the already settled duo of Jamison Gibson-Park and Jack Crowley, Ireland have been absolutely relentless. That is a word we should get used to hearing, because there’s really no other way of describing it. Punch after punch, hammer blow after hammer blow; when Ireland get an extended period of possession, five-pointers almost feels inevitable. It’s borderline unstoppable!
Before analysing Ireland’s attack, it’s important to remember the core principles on which it’s built. They include, but not limited to: speed, cohesion and accuracy. However the one thing that stands out to me is this:
In rounds 2 and 3, Ireland completed over 500 total passes, more than any two game stretch in the 2023 Championship.
This stat underlines a theory I had post-Italy and had confirmed after the Wales game. Ireland are transitioning to a high possession, on-ball rugby team. This is why the attack can feel relentless for opposition. Ireland attack with such speed and variance, that it can feel indefensible for even the most stringent of defences.
Take the following examples above to show this natural evolution. Through Crowley, Ireland have an abrasive ball carrying 10 who can attack the line with purpose, but they have also surrounded him with options. Whereas Crowley could stay squarer in attack and give him a full array of 5 passing options; he still has 3 genuine threats ready and available. Five would be nice, but when the trio is Beirne, Lowe and Aki; it is again pretty unstoppable.
You see this once more against Italy. Crowley carries for a couple of metres, drawing two defenders. He then has the courage (and the backing) to try and offload out of the tackle. This pass was executed wonderfully and from there both Henshaw (offload) and McCloskey (tip-on pass) help put Dan Sheehan over in the corner. When Crowley first touches the ball Ireland are crowded, bunched and outnumbered; but they flip that on its head by the time McCloskey touches it.
These attacking waves are shown once more against Wales. After Joe McCarthy draws in 5 defenders with his carry, Ireland have a chance down the left. Crowley pushes Beirne out of the way to be the first defender, and as he and Calvin Nash wait until the last second to release the pass, it creates an easy try, despite being a 3v3.
The final example is the most recent try against Wales. After 16 phases of one-out carries and layered phase play Tadhg Beirne scores. But the damage is inflicted prior. In the penultimate phase both Caelan Doris and Jack Crowley (of all people) run hard inside shoulder lines to to help Ireland gain about 5 metres and go forward. With Crowley on the ground, Beirne accelerates into first receiver in an arcing run that we often see from Hugo Keenan. Wales are out on their feet so it’s an easy run in, but that’s because of the relentlessness of the prior phases.
Defence
As I mentioned earlier, a reliable defence is usually a common denominator in successful sides. It should be no surprise that this Farrell-Easterby orchestrated system is such a tough nut to crack. Although there will be space somewhere in every system, Ireland’s shutting down and stifling of opposition is as important as any other element.
Whereas attack is built on speed; the defence relies on a mix of patience and accuracy. It’s hard to define it as a pure blitz or total drift defence, as it’s more of a passive line with a few shooters, typically a forward or outside centre. As you can see from the image below from a midfield scrum, the line comes up together as one, however when Henshaw sees the long pass to an exposed Danty, he bites in, taking man and ball in a terrific read.
3 tries conceded in the first 3 games is almost impossible to comprehend, but tougher challenges may lie ahead. Whereas England have shown a limited capability in broken play, Scotland still thrive off it. Easterby and co will know that any chinks in the armour could be punished. Take the two passages highlighted below for instance. Although Joe McCarthy swallows up Paolo Garbisi, a ten of Finn Russell’s distribution abilities should be calm and accurate enough in hitting his support runner and putting them into space.
Last year Scotland managed just two clean line breaks against Ireland, but if they do find more in roads in Dublin, they can get into shape quicker than any team Ireland have faced thus far. Following the break from Redpath, Russell is ready to pounce with a two man pod on his shoulder. With England scattered, Finn drops a pinpoint kick in behind for the game-sealing try. History suggests Ireland will absorb whatever the Scots throw at them, but it once again hinges on accuracy in their actions.
Kicking Game
So often the ugly stepsister of rugby’s main sectors, the kicking game is as important as anything. When Johnny was the chief at 10 he kicked spiral bombs and left the clearing to James Lowe. Now, under Crowley, they are kicking less and for a shorter distance, moving even closer to an on-ball style of play. James Lowe will still be utilised, but he will also be targeted for Crowley’s crossfield kicks also.
Ireland’s kicking evolution has arguably the greatest point of difference in recent years, while also being an area of great change this year. We have become accustomed to using James Lowe’s big boot to exit as shown in the image below. Whether by design or otherwise, Lowe carries all the way to the 10m line in that example, with the ball coming to a stop in the French in-goal area. What we can take away however is that Ireland clearly were not interested in putting the ball out of play against a suave attacking side like France.
A staple of Ireland’s kicking game of late has been their kick to attack. Jack Crowley on two occasions shown below tries to switch the point of attack in an instant, as he so often does meticulously for Munster; but is derailed. Both times he is looking to find space behind the open side winger but is charged down by en onrushing defender.
The plus side of having a 10 who can make these late decisions, is the knock-on effects. France were aware that Crowley could try this again at any stage. Maybe they were over influenced by his performance against Toulon, but France defended wary of the threat. In the first shot below we see edge defenders poised for a potential cross kick (or a killer skip pass which Gibson-Park and Crowley often use). The second is even more evident with Crowley shaping to kick once he gains possession, causing Moefana to react; before ultimately shipping it on to Beirne, who invites Lowe on to the play as Ireland get to the edge and break the gain line. Sometimes when you don’t kick tells as much of a story as when you do!
Ireland are kicking less, kicking shorter, and kicking with greater variance. It will be interesting to see what Ireland do when Mack Hansen returns to the side as he has often stepped in at first receiver as an attacking or exit kicking option. Could Ciarán Frawley take up that mantle should he see greater game time at full back? Will Craig Casey be tasked with keeping the same fluidity in his range of kicks, despite some execution errors against Italy? It remains to be seen, but it is enthralling.
Despite some fears, including my own, Ireland are evolving. From attack to kicking game; they are a work in progress. There’s been moments of systematic and individual excellence; as well as minor infractions and errors. All in all, it’s been a case of so far so good. Thankfully there’s still loads to learn in the final two games, and plenty of scope for improvement. After all, it’s better to be imperfect than two have maxed out with a fortnight to spare.
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