There’s something mystical about the sporting calendar in April. We all love the cold winter nights in packed out terraces, but that’s because the reward is even better. The days are getting longer, the weather is trying to get warmer, the television is overrun with live sport, and I for one could not be happier.
Although the European rugby schedule has been altered annually since 2020, some old habits die hard. When Quins and Glasgow meet on Friday night, excitement will be feigned for most. By the time Bordeaux host Sarries and Leinster return to Lansdowne Road, then we will be glued to the couch. As cross country battles commence, we will watch galacticos collide with a few old rivalries being renewed. Whether you love or loathe the Round of 16 concept, there’s a nostalgic buzz from weekends like these.
The four Irish provinces are divided amongst the two tiers of competition, but there’s no sense of forgone conclusions at play. Leinster have a lengthy injury list and weather forecast to battle, while Munster’s backs are firmly against the wall again. Ulster travel to France with one win in their last six, while Connacht have one win there since 2019. You can’t take anything for granted no matter how many Six Nations winners you can field.
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Leinster v Leicester Tigers
Saturday at 8pm on RTÉ 2 & TNT Sport 1
The Irish journey starts in Dublin on Saturday night as #2 seed Leinster host Leicester in a familiar duel. This weekend will be the 15th clash between the sides, with Leinster winning nine, including the last five in a row dating back to the 2009 Heineken Cup Final. However it is hard to dub it a rivalry when Leinster have won the last three matchups by an aggregate of 105-48, and barely broke stride in another of those. History suggests that if the English giants are to knock their Irish counterparts off their stride, it might take an act of God.
Despite some mild concerns, Leinster are back to full health with their selection, but the same cannot be said for their visitors. James Ryan (long-term), Garry Ringrose and Luke McGrath are the only notable absences from the 23, making them overwhelming favourites. Ross Molony starts at lock alongside Joe McCarthy with Ryan Baird once again preferred over Jack Conan. Jamie Osborne and Robbie Henshaw once again team up in midfield, with Ross Byrne starting in Europe for the first time this season.
Leicester however are without powerhouse locks Ollie Chessum and George Martin, Former Munster loosehead James Cronin packs down alongside Julian Montoya and Dan Cole in the highlight of the pack. Fit again Jack van Poortvliet and Handre Pollard are at half back with Freddie Steward named on the wing.
The injuries clearing up for Leinster certainly clears a path for a cake walk victory. Leicester’s typical tight five power has been deflated and could look rudderless in Dublin. The blotchy weather forecast could bring a dour game with a sprinkle of individual brilliance, but it’s hard to see it coming from those in green. Only a Handre Pollard off-balling masterclass could turn the tide here.
Prediction: Leinster by 14
Montpellier v Ulster
Sunday at 12:30pm on Premier Sports 1
To the sunny south east of France next as Richie Murphy’s Ulster travel to take on 2021 Challenge Cup winners Montpellier. It’s been a period of unprecedented turmoil in the northern province, culminating in the Ireland under-20 head coach taking the vacant position on an interim basis. It’s not been sunshine and rainbows for their opponents either, who also sacked their head coach Richard Cockerill, and were sitting at the foot of the Top 14 table for a large part of the season. I wouldn’t call it a season defining afternoon, but winning can help the late season vibes.
Montpellier:
1-8: Gregory Fichten, Christopher Tolofua, Harry Williams, Florian Verhaeghe, Paul Willemse, Alexandre Becognee, Clement Doumenc, Sam Simmonds
9-15: Aubin Eymeri, Louis Foursans, Ben Lam, Auguste Cadot, George Bridge, Gabriel Ngandebe, Alexandre De Nardi
16-23: Vano Karkadze, Baptiste Erdocio, Lasha Macharashvili, Tyler Duguid, Yacouba Camara, Louis Carbonel, Masivesi Dakuwaqa, Pierre Lucas
Ulster:
1-8: Steven Kitshoff, Rob Herring, Tom O’Toole, Alan O’Connor, Iain Henderson, Matty Rea, David McCann, Nick Timoney
9-15: John Cooney, Nathan Doak, Ethan McIlroy, Stuart McCloskey, James Hume, Rob Baloucoune, Stewart Moore
16-23: Tom Stewart, Andrew Warwick, Scott Wilson, Harry Sheridan, Cormac Izuchukwu, Jake Flannery, Jacob Stockdale, Dave Ewers
Montpellier shocked many with their strong selection on Friday. Paul Willemse and Sam Simmonds are the highest profile, and most important names on their team sheet for the hosts. Kiwis George Bridge and Ben Lam will bring a spark out wide, with the mercurial Louis Carbonel in reserve. Ulster have gone close to full strength here, backing Nathan Doak at out half once more. He partners John Cooney, with Stewart Moore coming in at full back. Iain Henderson returns to captain the side in the only change to the pack.
If Ulster gets the job done here, it will take a stronger effort than we previously expected. Nathan Doak received a mini baptism of fire in Cape Town last week, but he showed he can orchestrate a backline. Young gun David McCann will be crucial in his wide forward attacking positioning, as they will be sure to get to width to avoid the internal pressure. The more times James Hume touches the ball this week, the better the odds.
A muddy few weeks lie in store but if they can claim a fearsome French scalp under the balmy sunshine, then the tumultuous recent months might feel like there’s light at the end of the tunnel.
Prediction: Ulster by 5
Northampton Saints v Munster
Sunday at 12:30pm on TNT Sport 1 and ITV
There’s an eerie tint of yesteryear on our next clash. Munster and Northampton’s rivalry across 2010-2012 was one of the best in Europe, with Ronan O’Gara’s famous drop goal still living long in the memory. The Saints finally overcame the Thomond obstacle in January, and although they’re flying high in the Premiership, these are the days the men in red adore. These are the spiteful revenge games that neutral and biassed club fans love. Even our South African friends have a watchful eye on one of Europe’s great entertainers.
It’s not a major understatement to say that Munster’s chances hinge on John Ryan. The 24 time Ireland international has been named amongst the replacements, pending an appeal hearing for his suspension from midweek. Should he feature, then Munster’s prospects take a massive boost. Calvin Nash will be missed on the wing, but RG Snyman is back to plug an obvious hole.
Northampton, victors in the last matchup, have gone for a 6/2 bench split and 3 lock pack for this weekend. It’s a smart move from Phil Dowson and his coaching staff who will try desperately to outmuscle Munster. England nine Alex Mitchell is amongst the subs, while Tom Pearson, George Furbank and Rory Hutchinson miss out. However club captain Lewis Ludlam is fit to start at openside flanker.
However mystical Munster can be in Europe, a win on Sunday would cross the threshold of all time greats. With their impressive away form of late and key returnees, nothing is impossible; but it won’t be easy. With Fin Smith at 10, Northampton could try and limit Munster’s attacking threat by kicking long and withholding possession in midfield – 91% of their possession last time was between the two 22 metre lines; compared to 59% for Munster. The visitors will need big performances from Tadhg Beirne, RG Snyman and Jack Crowley. All world class and better than their opposite man. All integral to the progress of their team.
Prediction: Northampton by 5
Pau v Connacht
Sunday at 5:30pm on Premier Sports 1
Our provincial ramblings finishes up in the Estadio du Hameau in Pau on Sunday evening, when Pete Wilkins’ struggling Connacht will look to breathe life back into their gasping season. Consecutive losses to the Lions and Benetton leaves them outside the URC playoff picture. The same playoff permutations apply for Pau, however sitting 7th in the Top 14 is a dream season for the perennial minnows. The question now is whether the 2000 Challenge Cup champions will give Europe a real shot this year?
Pau:
1-8: Ziggy Fisi’ihoi, Youri Delhommel, Siate Tokolahi, Guillaume Ducat, Lekima Tagitagivalu, Martin Puech, Thibaut Hamonou, Sacha Zegueur
9-15: Dan Robson, Joe Simmonds, Aminiasi Tuimaba, Jale Vatubua, Eliott Roudil, Thomas Carol, Jack Maddocks
16-23: Lucas Rey, Hugo Parrou, Guram Papidze, Steve Cummins, Fabrice Metz, Reece Hewat, Thibault Daubagna, Axel Desperes
Connacht:
1-8: Denis Buckley, Dave Heffernan, Finlay Bealham, Joe Joyce, Niall Murray, Cian Prendergast, Shamus Hurley-Langton, Jarrad Butler
9-15: Caolin Blade, Jack Carty, Shane Jennings, Bundee Aki, David Hawkshaw, Shayne Bolton, Tiernan O’Halloran
16-23: Eoin de Buitléar, Jordan Duggan, Sam Illo, Darragh Murray, Conor Oliver, Matthew Devine, JJ Hanrahan, Tom Farrell
In a disappointment to the neutral, there’s no Whitelock brothers for Pau on Sunday. Their omission and that of Émilien Gailleton indicates the home side will take it easy in Europe this week. The same cannot be said for Connacht, who welcome back Bundee Aki and Finlay Bealham. Ballinasloe duo Shane Jennings and Matthew Devine are involved in the matchday 23, while Caolin Blade, JJ Hanrahan and Tom Farrell all return.
Despite some early week pessimism, the team announcements have me leaning towards a Connacht victory in this one, and boy do they need one. Bundee Aki is a main reason for it, as he should be able to give them the carrying impetus they desperately need – 1m per carry vs Benetton. This has all the hallmarks of a trademark Bundee performance, exactly when Connacht need him most.
Prediction: Connacht by 7
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Anyone in the sports predictions business hopes to be correct, but this is one weekend where I hope I am wrong. Four tricky tasks lay in store for the provinces, and after a number of years of European malaise, multiple first round exits would hit hard.
Leinster might be clear favourites, but Munster need to overcome the odds, Ulster are hard to predict and Connacht are floundering. Four wins from four would be ideal, three would be nice. Two and we’re treading water, while one is the minimum. Although some rest weeks are nice, it’s too early to shift focus entirely towards the URC.
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