If you’re so inclined, you will link every tangible or intangible piece of Irish success to a down period. The 2023 Grand Slam and 2024 Six Nations title could be diluted by the Rugby World Cup agony sandwiched between them. Those successes could also be juxtaposed to the 1990s where Ireland averaged less than one Five Nations victory per season. We are in the glory days, we are entitled to enjoy them.
That said, even in glory, no team is perfect. This 2022-2024 Ireland side are arguably our best ever, but like the 2007-2009 Springboks or 2015 All Blacks, they are not without critique. However mild, questions about Ireland over the coming weeks will pop up, and many will be valid. Be it set piece or attack or even first phase defence, there’s on field questions to go with off field ones like succession planning or evolution.
In order for Ireland to evolve, there will need to be some turnover in order to find our true return on investment.
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Firstly, here are some of the crucial stats regarding Andy Farrell’s use of his squad in the past few weeks.
Squad Size: 36
Players Used: 32 (Not used – T. Stewart, N. Timoney, J. Stockdale, T. Ahern*)
New Caps: 1 (O. Jager)
Six Nations Debuts: 6 (C. Nash, C. Frawley, J. McCarthy, O. Jager, J. Loughman. H. Byrne)
Average Age: 29.79 years
Players Under 25: 6 (J. McCarthy, T. Stewart, J. Crowley, R. Baird, H. Byrne, C. Casey, T. Ahern)
Average Caps: 40
Players with <15 Caps (pre tournament): 12
Notable Absentees: M. Hansen, J. O’Brien, R. Byrne, D. Kilcoyne, R. Herring
With an initial squad of just 34, Ireland had the smallest squad size in the tournament and fewest number of official call-ups with 2. They decided to chase silverware and historic back-to-back Grand Slams and despite falling short of one of those aims, it does lay bare that evolution and progression planning was always going to be kicked down the road.
With Andy Farrell taking the British & Irish Lions job next year, you may see the 2025 campaign used to integrate new blood. However, the lure of being the first team to win three consecutive Six Nations titles will probably be too much for Simon Easrterby and the coaches to overlook. With that, Ireland may look to close out this year by trying to strike a fine balance between winning test matches, and the necessary experimentation and rotation into the “Category A” team that we all can recite.
After looking legged against Scotland before the provincial run-in, the case to rest the most valuable players for the summer starts to gather momentum.
Summer Tour of South Africa
The most obvious place to try out new ideas and players would be on the summer tour. Ireland travel down to South Africa for a two-test series in July. It’s the world champions hosting the best in the north in a true grudge match. Just typing these words makes the prospect of winning said series enticing. That said, these sides will be looking at it differently. South Africa will seek to avenge their Pool B loss to Ireland last September, while Andy Farrell will be keen to make history. Whether or not these intangible metrics have any major importance remains to be seen.
The elephant in the boardroom discussing minutes is Leo Cullen and his Leinster men. Should they go all the way in Europe and the URC, they might be running on fumes come June. That said, as selfish as it seems, an early Champions Cup exit could see their Ireland heroes free for an extra four or five weekends. I’m just putting it out there.
A number of pundits, most namely Bernard Jackman, have made the case for slight experimentation on this tour. It’s not quite “out with the old, in with the new” but rather throwing caution to the wind. Of Ireland’s matchday 23 against Scotland, these are the season minutes since last August:
Andrew Porter – 1138, Dan Sheehan – 944, Tadhg Furlong* – 829
Joe McCarthy – 1167, Tadhg Beirne – 1492
Peter O’Mahony* – 812, Caelan Doris – 1434, Josh van der Flier – 1170
Jamison Gibson Park – 1107, Jack Crowley – 1364
Bundee Aki – 1189, Robbie Henshaw – 1135
James Lowe* – 978, Jordan Larmour – 892, Calvin Nash – 1250
Ronan Kelleher – 572, Cian Healy* – 256, Finlay Bealham – 671, Ryan Baird – 910, Jack Conan – 471, Conor Murray – 585, Harry Byrne – 591, Garry Ringrose* – 992
*denotes long-term injury in said period
Bold denotes over 1,000 minutes
It’s stats like the one above that makes you appreciate our player welfare system, while also fearing the straw on the proverbial camel’s back. If you play with fire then you shall expect to get burned, and going gung-ho for a trip to the HighVeld after a gruelling season feels like pouring petrol on an open fire.
That said, circumstances could change quickly. Working off the assumption of provincial dominance from here on could prove to be a silly oversight. Leinster have 14 potential games left, but you would expect heavy rotation in at least 4 of those.
All that being said, these are players I would rest or minute manage in the summer:
| Rest Entirely | Manage Minutes |
| Tadhg Furlong | Andrew Porter |
| Tadhg Beirne | Dan Sheehan |
| Peter O’Mahony | Josh van der Flier |
| Jamison Gibson Park | Caelan Doris |
| Bundee Aki | Hugo Keenan |
| Cian Healy |
It’s somewhat controversial, especially with four centrally contracted players being asked (by me) to stay at home in Ireland. Yet, I feel like it would be better off. Rest up, enjoy the break, do a heavy but managed pre-season and bounce back earlier next season before the Autumn. As for those with managed minutes, I think it’s fair to expect them to play 140+ minutes across two tests, but I would rather see those guys start once and bench or left out for the other game.
I’m sure others would see it differently, as it’s a true case of damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
Autumn Nations Series
I will touch on the anointed list of players I would like to see capped or introduced later, but first let’s look at a complex November test window. As of right now, we are unsure as to what the official “release window” will be. Although that has never really bothered Ireland before, it could do this time around, because of two fixtures.
Saturday 2nd November – Munster v New Zealand XV
Saturday 30th November – Ireland v Australia (150th Anniversary Challenge Match)
One of these two games looks set to take place on a URC weekend, and that alone will cause some mild consternation. If it’s Munster who have scheduled their marquee tie for a URC weekend, then I’m sure a workable compromise will be made with the league. However, if the IRFU are asking the provinces to forgo having their most important players within a fortnight of the Champions Cup pool stage opener… then we might as well make the debates a TV product.
With this in mind, Ireland could be planning for heavy rotation in November. They would never risk it against the All Blacks under the lights (that might be for another day’s conversation), but maybe Argentina and Australia would signal the first movements towards a more “horses for courses” type selection.
Personally I would be in favour of going fairly strong against Argentina, if the trade-off is a nearly diametrically opposed selection against Australia. That being said though there are unanswerable questions for us mere mortals as of now; what is the official window? Is the Australia game capped?
Fresh Faces
Finally for the part you all came to see. Who am I selecting for the Summer and Autumn tests to keep the seats warm? I am not advocating to rip up the script and prematurely end some of the test careers; but here are some of the guys I would like to see get a shot:
Tom Stewart
Tom Stewart is the latest cab off the rank as Ulster’s newest young prodigy at hooker. Still only 23, Stewart is close to usurping Rob Herring at a provincial level and deserves a crack to prove his worth as Ireland’s number three hooker.
Tom O’Toole
If recent rumours are true, then Tom O’Toole could be Ireland’s latest prop to shift from the tight head to loose head side. Should he do so, then I expect to see him get some minutes in the Autumn.
Oli Jager
That then opens up a slip stream for Jager to burst into the 23. He’s four years younger than Bealham and Furlong, and his breakdown and set-piece work has Munster fans with stars in their eyes since his mid-season arrival.
Tom Ahern
If Jager has Munster fans delighted, Tom Ahern’s early season heroics has excited everyone. Having been a star at under-20’s level alongside Jack Crowley, the Waterford man has been unleashed as a wide attacking option from the six shirt, making him a similar option for and competitor to Ryan Baird.
John Hodnett
Sticking with Munster and John Hodnett’s period in the abyss feels wrong in many ways. A core star in their URC glory, including a Player of the Match showing in the final; Hodnett could provide cover at openside behind Josh van der Flier.
Gavin Coombes
If Ireland are to stick with this high possession gameplan, then they will continue to struggle in the power battle with the current squad build. For me, exiled Gavin Coombes is a perfect candidate, and should be given the opportunity to stake a claim. He’s a heavy workload eight who can be added to the tight carry mix and can go the full 80.
Craig Casey
Scrum half is an ageing position in Ireland, but there is one man chomping at the bit to break up the usual cohort. Casey, like Tom Stewart earlier, is Munster’s starting nine, and has the form that should lead to more appearances. A leader in try involvements per 80, Casey’s accuracy and speed is ready for international rugby.
Sam Prendergast
After a stellar year with the under-20’s and a handful of URC starting performances this season, Sam Prendergast is on track for a test debut in November. His place in the Six Nations training panel cements his status as one for the future at least.
Jamie Osborne
Next up ready for minutes is Jamie Osborne. When fit, Osborne has looked comfortable at every level for Leinster, and has a versatility that works well for club or country. It remains to be seen whether he would be viewed as a centre, wing or full back; but he will be capped somewhere if fit.
Mike Haley
When Hugo Keenan went down before the Scotland game, many fans were left wishing upon a Mike Haley shaped star. The reliable full back has been out in the cold for Ireland, but fans of his can only hope that Ireland were spooked by the list of back three injuries in the Six Nations and look to bring in fresh, but experienced blood.
That is just 10 standout names but for the sake of my safety, I’d add the following squad “regulars”:
Jeremy Loughman, Finlay Bealham, Iain Henderson, Nick Timoney, Ciarán Frawley
That extra quartet are a fine mix of experienced and unknown at test level, but can compliment players in a shaken up position group. Should form, injuries and luck go their way, I’d like to see most, if not all, of the following uncapped players get some training minutes also:
Jack Boyle, Jack Aungier, Darragh Murray, David McCann, Nathan Doak, Shayne Bolton, Stewart Moore
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When all is said and done, the abiding memory of the 2024 International rugby calendar will most likely be the Six Nations title. If it comes to pass, then winning a test series in South Africa would be a special slice of history, with a November party to round out the year all going well. Ireland have not lost an Autumn test since 2016, and will be confident of extending that run.
Yet, like in previous “cycles”, the fruit of the coaching staff’s labour could be in how they use the squad across the next 18 months, including the 2025 summer window. Now is the time to maximise and enhance, and although there are lucrative honours at stake; resting up and ageing and tired squad before a Lions year seems to be the best practice.
Only time will tell and history suggests that Ireland will roll their cohesive dice for as long as possible, but it certainly feels like rotation will improve the evolution.
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